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Pentagon says US strikes stalled Iran's nuclear programme by two years, but satellite images tell another story

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The Pentagon declared on Wednesday that US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites might have delayed Tehran’s ambitions by up to two years. Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s spokesperson, told reporters, “We have degraded their programme by one to two years, at least intel assessments inside the Department (of Defense) assess that.” He added the estimate was “probably closer to two years” but gave no evidence for this claim.

US President Donald Trump had earlier said the same strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear plans. At the Pentagon briefing, Parnell echoed this view: “All of the intelligence that we've seen (has) led us to believe that Iran's -- those facilities especially, have been completely obliterated.”

Massive bombs and cruise missiles unleashed
On 22 June, US bombers hit three Iranian nuclear sites with more than a dozen 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and over two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles. The strikes focused on Fordow and Natanz with bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers. A submarine launched the Tomahawks at Isfahan.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, explained the tactic. He said most bombs at Fordow “were tasked to enter the main shaft, move down into the complex at greater than 1,000 feet per second, and explode in the mission space.”

Tehran admits damage but moves ahead
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi admitted that Fordow suffered a big blow. Speaking to CBS News, Araqchi said, “No one exactly knows what has transpired in Fordow. That being said, what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged.”

But new satellite images show the story is not over. Photos from Maxar Technologies taken last Sunday reveal Iran is still working at Fordow. Maxar said the pictures “reveal ongoing activity at and near the ventilation shafts and holes caused by last week’s airstrikes on the Fordow fuel enrichment complex.”

The images show an excavator and workers next to the northern shaft above the underground plant. A crane stands at the shaft entrance. Several vehicles line the access path.

Inspectors spot repairs, not surrender
Former nuclear inspector David Albright, who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, said images from Fordow show Iran is “actively working at the two MOP impact sites penetrating the ventilation shafts.” He believes this work “may include backfilling the craters, as well as conducting engineering damage assessments and likely radiological sampling. The craters above the main shafts remain open.”

He added on X, “We have observed that the Iranians have also rapidly repaired the bomb cratering damage on the main entrance road from only a few days prior. However, there are yet no indications of any efforts to reopen any of the tunnel entrances.”

UN watchdog: Iran could restart enrichment soon
While the Pentagon stands by its timeline, the UN’s nuclear watchdog chief remains cautious. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran could spin up new centrifuges within months. “They can have in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium,” Grossi said.

Grossi also noted Iran’s advanced nuclear know-how cannot be erased by bombs alone. His warning fits an early, lower-confidence Pentagon intelligence report that the strikes may have only slowed Iran by months.

Stockpiles may be hidden
Some experts think Iran may have shifted its near weapons-grade uranium before the raids. So far, no hard proof of this has come to light. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said last week he knew of no evidence Iran moved stockpiles to shield them from the attack.

An early Defence Intelligence Agency assessment pointed to a range of possible outcomes. One scenario sees Fordow restarting quickly with new kit. Another holds that Iran might even abandon the damaged site altogether.

The real measure of success now sits underground — and in intelligence files still under review. As satellite images catch fresh machinery at Fordow, officials and inspectors weigh new findings against bold claims.

For now, the Pentagon insists it hit Tehran’s nuclear heart hard. Iran keeps digging. The world waits to see which side blinks first.
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